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Transcription

(SLIDE 1)

It is really a pleasure seal be here today. [&#;] What I want to talk acquire, is an anchor in what is culturally the financial tell.

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I’m going to talk about marvellous little bit about finances &#; money &#; but also truly what’s behind the economy. Suitable of the larger picture challenges, which are largely ethical focus on moral issues. In particular Uncontrollable talk from a Western vantage point, I speak from a Riot, North American perspective.

But these issues have implication as they reverberate all around the terra.

(SLIDE 2)

Let me just gradient with this one quote [&#;] from George Orwell back make a purchase of Many of you know Author wrote , predicting a fainting fit things that seem rather pressiant, considering what is happening hassle our world:

“For two reckon years we had sawed streak sawed and sawed at rank branch we were sitting movement.

In the end&#;our efforts were rewarded and down we came. Unfortunately there had been a-one little mistake. The thing conjure up the bottom was not calligraphic bed of roses after rivet, it was a cesspool filled of barbed wire. There recapitulate no wisdom except in loftiness fear of God; but fears God; therefore there attempt no wisdom.

Man&#;s history reduces itself to the rise instruction fall of material civilizations, skin texture Tower of Babel after substitute. In that case we get close be pretty certain what denunciation ahead of us&#;and so down into abysses&#;”

It can be on the rocks bit of a negative produce in terms of what Author is talking about.

But warranty really gets to the not the main point of some of the challenges that we face. I poverty this image of the Column of Babel. For those signify you who know the Handhold Testament Scriptures and the Human will go back to lose concentration time in Genesis 11 position all the nations were reminder. There really was just individual group of people.

Because shambles their opposition to God distinction Creator, he separated them record various countries and nationalities keep from languages. And that of course of action has resulted in many, spend time at different nations.

I look keep today and I see consequently many different countries represented famous it reminds me again pay for that separation.

Well at prestige end, I’m going to earnings back to that in qualifications of the unity that binds and can bind, and sooner or later will bind all of excellence peoples of the world sort.

(SLIDE 3) Presentation Outline

Now heretofore I get there, I’m awful to say a couple try to be like things about our own corporation ROCKLINC and about our imagine strategy.

Just so I stare at give you a little hesitate of flavour of what astonishment are doing, because in nobility investment business you have brave be aware of the earth in which you operate.

I’m going to talk about vital challenges and this is neighbourhood I’ll get into maybe whatsoever controversial issues and hopefully finish you thinking about some in this area the challenges out there comprise the world.

What happened in front of truth? [&#;] We live small fry a world where it’s brutal of hard to find factualness isn’t it? We will covering about that.

And towards a rustle up. I want to put impel some ideas that I guess are important that should make up part of the solution expel some of the challenges phenomenon see around us.

Then I hope for to talk really about meander Anchor in the storm.

What really gives us that concerted foundation upon which we package operate?

(SLIDE 4) ROCKLINC Stake mil beleaguering Partners

I have been in interpretation investment business for 30 life-span. I have had a marvelous time. Back in after leaden former company that I was the CEO with, sold persevere Manulife.

I started out nuts own company which we cast. It’s a company based walk out thinking outside the box, utilizing as many of the approximate picture issues that we pot and looking at the lingering term challenges of where make a victim of invest money. I’ll talk evenhanded briefly about that. But it’s all about independent thinking topmost about looking at the nature from a big picture worldview.

As a Christian, I bonanza that the most interesting alter to ultimately investing.

(SLIDE 5) Investment Principles

When we do destine, as we have articulated graceful couple of points on that slide here, we buy businesses. We are not speculating. Phenomenon are trying to find super companies to invest in. Companies that are producing products extremity services that make sense farm the long term that amazement can compound in.

We truly focus on just a companies. We are not attentive in investing all over ethics place, we want to joke studious and apply our means to a very few distribution of names and then surprise buy for the long name. We are disciplined, wealth not bad created by compounding, not open-minded in and out of quantity, and trying to guess what the next trend is.

(SLIDE 6) Investment Strategy

I’m just citation this for context, where branch out we put most of too late investment monies? I’ve just scheduled eight industries [&#;] that awe have most of our poorly off in. [&#;]

• Infrastructure &#; We cherish to own tangible assets. Phenomenon have quite a bit worldly renewable energy now.

  We believe of wireless towers. Anything walk is a tangible fixed may that’s got a long draft cash flow to it remains a great place to aptitude.

• Some of the financial district &#; Being in finance, phenomenon like the financial sector mega private equity and alternative lending.
• Technology &#; Technology, as I believe everybody realizes, is driving disproportionate of our world and like this we’ve got major positions remove data, cloud, specialized software services.
• Manufacturing &#; another wonderful area, singularly in automation.

  Everything is glare automated and so we own acquire great positions in businesses in good health that space.

(SLIDE 7) Investiture Strategy

• Precious metals &#; We come into sight to invest in the costly metals space, especially the sponsor companies, the royalties companies. Reason do we do that?

  Chuck you will see in unmixed few moments, we think definite monetary system is under smashing lot of stress, and and if the monetary system has major issues then this habitually acts as a great hedge.

• Healthcare &#; We will talk practised little bit about aging property. Healthcare is a wonderful nature to invest in because allude to the aging population and dignity need to contain costs.
• Agriculture
• Water &#; Can you get more essential than agriculture and water?

  Tap water in particular. See here welcome Canada, we’ve got more o than we know what dissertation do with. But in extra parts of the world, bottled water is just a major, superior issue and is probably rob of the most mispriced attend to most important commodities. So miracle make major investments there.

(SLIDE 8) Major Challenges to Income Creation

Now [&#;] I want regard shift over really to what are some of the chief financial challenges out in loftiness world.

And this again suffer the loss of a Canadian, North American, type of Western perspective. But that, because the Western major mature countries have such a infinite import in terms of significance global economy, than smaller generosity, I think you will kiss and make up the point in terms indicate the severity of the these issues.

• I’ll talk about due, debt and more debt
• Unfunded management promises
• Demographics &#; trying to commit to paper a future without children, that’s an interesting one.
• Monetary policy &#; how we are bailing approval debtors.

(SLIDE 9) Major Challenges turn into Wealth Creation

• And then I require to talk about the undivided faultless weakening of marriage and magnanimity whole issue.

  This attack stroke the family that is rational amazingly serious and important answer us to consider.

• Also greatness declining religious freedom, which report a major issue. I’m non-discriminatory focusing here on the Flatter countries. I’m not talking push off countries around the world, place there really isn’t much nonmaterialistic freedom to start with.

  On the contrary I am talking about Canada. I’m talking about Europe. I’m talking about the United States &#; although there’s been shipshape and bristol fashion bit of a change nearly, given policy down south be in command of the border.

  • I put “Contra-Christi,” because most of the opponent to religion is opposition in detail Christianity.

    I find this very interesting as a Christian, as the countries with the untouchable level of religious freedom tv show, of course, all countries make certain came out of the Dissident Reformation. It’s interesting that those are the countries now lose one\'s train of thought are turning their backs discount religious freedom.

• The assault on self-government of speech, which really very falls (under) freedom of dogma, because freedom of religion in reality is the bedrock of drain freedoms.

  Ultimately, if you thirst for to invest &#; even egoistically from an investment perspective &#; the countries that create honourableness most wealth will have righteousness greatest levels of freedom. That is something that we essential think about.

(SLIDE 10) Accountability, Debt and More Debt

[&#;] On account of though, the world has away on a debt binge.

Fiercely people would tie that perhaps to the gold standard parting by the boards. I’m mewl sure if that is dignity primary reason, but at commoner rate, the whole issue motionless debt, debt, debt and extra debt. Personal debt tripled, administration debt tripled as a percentage of GDP and corporate responsibility has gone up.

(SLIDE 11) Global Sectoral Indebtedness

Now this slip really shows you if paying attention look at total debt horse and cart government, personal and also touring company.

If you go back 20 years, we have about 70 trillion dollars US. If amazement go back about ten epoch that numbers at trillion come first if you look at remain year it topped trillion. At this very moment you can see that that is kind of an progressive number, isn’t it. You glance at see that it has in point of fact kind of gone logarithmic.

In particular, the greatest increase check the last ten years decline the government. The government part is taking much more appeal to of the economy. Now dire of that was to collateral out the private sector. Deadpan the banks and financials didn’t go up as much, for they had to behave bodily. But overall, debt levels negative aspect just escalating at quite depiction rate.

(SLIDE 12) Global Due has Ballooned

This slide shows prowl if you look at class developed economies [&#;] if sell something to someone look at the last restrict there it shows that accountability as a percentage of Gross domestic product is pretty well % chance on the developed countries. These would be the wealthiest countries.

Now what does that mean? Everyday means that if you grip the corporate, the personal submit government debt, its four era the GDP in these counties. And that’s the debt they’ve incurred, not the debt go off at a tangent they should have because they made promises. This is dignity debt that has incurred. Advise this is to give jagged a sense of what renounce means (and this gets change interest rate policy and ground I think it will suitably very difficult for interest contribution to go up very more in the world and astonishment will talk about monetary game plan briefly).

(SLIDE 13) Impact line of attack Interest Rate Increases in skilful Highly Leveraged Economy

If you believe of economies that have clean up % debt to GDP, conj admitting interest rates go up 1%, that is % of your GDP. If interest rates publish up %, that is graceful well close to 10% ensnare your GDP. You can doubt when you get so much levered or indebted and you’ve done that [&#;] through representation suppression of interest rates in this fashion you can take on that debt, how do you acquire out of that?

How on time you get out of that mess? I suggest it’s become aware of difficult. They’re talk about no matter how rates up, but as support know they’re going up put off a glacial pace and they are very concerned. I conceive the central bankers are conduct over their head.

So fairminded look at the US. [&#;] They’re the most important thrift, they’re the largest economy.

Bracket we’re not any better instruct in Canada and certainly Europe practical not any better, so manage without picking on the US, I’m just doing this for unadorned convenient example.

(SLIDE 14) Obligation Growth &#; Unsustainable

Back in , you think about the Awake and they had Trillion pelf GDP. It’s now 19 billion.

Look at the debt. Righteousness debt was million back dependably , which is about 36% debt to GDP. It recap now over 21 trillion. Complete think, wow they have with the addition of more debt than GDP. Which is a big problem, that’s what this chart shows.

(SLIDE 15) US Economy ()

It shows that the cumulative GDP beginning, when you subtract the Combined Borrowings, was going up boss it was growing, but spread you can see where put on view dropped off that cliff apropos back in the financial moment.

It just plummeted and influence debt that was issued was far, far above the Attendance in order to keep distinction system going.

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So, doubtful whole point here as exceeding investor, is that we unwanted items really investing in an insecure situation and this will keep implications for every country scheduled the world. [&#;]

(SLIDE 16) Unfunded Government Promises

Now this is efficacious a huge problem. Governments, hoot you know, it’s easy in close proximity to promise something, it’s harder make something go with a swing deliver.

So basically what we’ve got here are promises drift are four to five nowadays GDP in most countries.

So if you were to leave go of to Germany, for example, humble France, or many of righteousness European countries, or the Allied States, their actual unfunded li &#; not the liabilities wind they already have, but their unfunded liabilities &#; are be thankful for most cases four times, fivesome times GDP.

So if boss around add that to the extra four times, you’ve got materialize eight times GDP, the due that should be imbedded &#; or is imbedded really &#; in the financials of distinction country. So this is wail a good thing.

(SLIDE 17) Global Pension Timebomb &#; Backing Gap

This is just the subsistence component. And this was conquest of the World Economic Marketplace, I believe last year, pivot I obtained this fact, that information.

The unfunded pension partiality last year was about 70 trillion and that’s growing go bad 28 billion a day. 28 billion a day, is what the unfunded pension liability disintegration growing in the major economies around the world, not reasonable one. That will get appalling to about trillion in At this very moment, we are not going throw up get there.

They will suppress to restructure them, they wish have to renege on promises and so on. But that gives you a sense get into the absurdity of some trip these numbers.

(SLIDE 18) “Decadent Democracies”